Guwahati: India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall in September, with the country’s overall precipitation expected to remain below 91 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its monthly forecast on Monday.
The LPA for September is around 167.9 mm, based on rainfall data recorded between 1971 and 2020. The IMD has also forecast that the average maximum temperature during September is likely to remain above normal.
The weather department said India recorded its hottest August since 1901 in 2026, with the mean temperature reaching 28.01 degrees Celsius, compared with the normal average of 27.34 degrees Celsius.
The average minimum temperature also touched a record high of 24.36 degrees Celsius in August, against the normal of 23.68 degrees Celsius.
August also saw deficient rainfall, with the country receiving 213.3 mm, making it the seventh-lowest August rainfall recorded since 2001, according to the IMD.
IMD Director General of Meteorology Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said strong El Niño conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures remaining above normal across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
“These conditions are expected to strengthen further in the coming months,” Mohapatra said.
The IMD said the prevailing El Niño conditions were among the key factors behind the rainfall deficit recorded in August and could continue to influence rainfall patterns in September.
Four low-pressure systems developed during August and remained active for a combined 26 days. However, their rainfall activity was largely concentrated over the Indo-Gangetic Plains, leaving several other parts of the country with deficient precipitation.
The IMD said this uneven distribution of rainfall contributed significantly to the overall deficit recorded during August.